What Time Am I Capable of Running in the Marathon?

An overview of how to predict a runner’s marathon finish time

Thomas O'Grady
Runner's Life
Published in
9 min readJan 10, 2022

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Photo by Candra Winata on Unsplash

Planning and executing a successful marathon training cycle is no easy task. Doing so requires an accurate reflection of a runner’s current fitness level, which can be difficult. Training for a marathon should provide a sufficient stimulus to provoke improvement without causing overtraining. Additionally, the duration of a training cycle should be adequate to prepare someone to race, but not so long that boredom or burnout set in.

With all these factors in play, it is still common for a person to question what their appropriate pacing should be for the marathon and what their predicted finish times will be. To better predict marathon finish times, it can be beneficial to utilize the results of a few shorter races. These shorter races act as a benchmark for determining a person’s fitness level. This makes it easier to predict marathon finish times. As an avid runner, coach, and consistent marathon finisher, I am frequently asked — “How fast can I run the marathon?” or “What time can I expect to run for the marathon?”

This article details my approach to this topic and provides my best answer to these types of questions when they are posed to me.

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Thomas O'Grady
Runner's Life

Thomas J. O’Grady, Ph.D., M.P.H. is a data minded professional who is an avid runner, hiker, and lover of the outdoors.